Generally when you look through a list of award shortlists, you know who is going to scoop the big prize.
Unless I am very mistaken, next month’s BBC Sports Personality of the Year is already a clear one-horse race.
When the summer comes around there is the huge obsession over the singular British tennis sensation doing well at Wimbledon.
In the past we have had Jeremy Bates, Tim Henman and Greg Rusedski, who have all mixed it at SW19, yet never really got within touching distance of the prize.
This year we have a winner, somebody who has actually taken on the best at Wimbledon and excelled.
Because of this Andy Murray is nailed on to blitz the rest of the runners and riders at this year’s ceremony in Leeds.
Looking back, our obsession with this was underlined in the 1997 awards when Rusedski won the BBC’s main prize and Henman scooped runner-up.
This was despite the fact that the pair only made it through to the quarter-finals of Wimbledon.
So, going on that ratio, it would be an absolute travesty if Murray finished anywhere apart from top dog.
There are a glittering array of stars competing for the honours, but who else can challenge the Wimbledon infatuation.
The BBC award seems to be mainly for individual sports performers rather than those who play in teams.
Since 1990 just six team-sport players have won the top honour.
That includes Ryan Giggs, who was shocked when he won in 2009, David Beckham, who scored a free-kick against Greece and Paul Gascoigne, a winner because he cried after receiving a yellow card.
All of the above were fashionable at the time, which could well be why they won.
You had to welcome the selections of Andrew Flintoff and Jonny Wilkinson for their respective efforts in 2005 and 2003 - both were richly deserved.
And though the achievements of Leigh Halfpenny and Ian Bell have been impressive, they can swiftly be ruled out.
Excellent cases could be made for each entrant to win, but I can guarantee that Murray is already extending his trophy cabinet.
There has also been a good amount of box-ticking, filling the shortlist up with people who honestly shouldn’t be there.
The danger the organisers face is that there could be public uproar if the fashionable person doesn’t win or if the correct groups aren’t covered - as we saw in 2011 when no women were on the shortlist.
In contrast, that is the beauty of the superbly-organised Scarborough and District Sports Council awards night, which I attended on Monday evening.
There is no pressure on the selection committee and because of that the choices are always correct.
You just have to look at the talent that scooped the awards this year, including British Trials champion Michael Brown and national runner Bronwen Owen, both of whom have had an outstanding 12 months.
Clubs and individuals all collected the recognition they deserved on a great night.
I think we can be proud as a town and as well as predicting this year’s BBC personality, I will also forecast a bright future for sport in Scarborough.