ELECTION 2017: How to get the most out of opinion polls without being led up the garden path
After the polling miss at the 2015 general election, many politicians and journalists loudly declared they would never trust polls again. Two years later, opinion polls have regularly been leading the election news. First they foresaw a Conservative landslide, including a resurgence in Scotland, and more recently they’ve pointed to a shock Labour fightback.
Election pollsters put their methods to the test – and turnout is the key
Trust in election forecasting is probably as low as it has been since 1948, when political polling suffered possibly its worst ever humiliation. In that year’s US presidential election, the 8-1 underdog Harry Truman defied all predictions to defeat his Republican challenger, Thomas Dewey. “Dewey Defeats Truman” screamed the now-infamous newspaper headline printed before the actual votes were counted.
Is there a link between foreign policy and terrorism? British intelligence thinks so
What causes terrorism? The combination of the horrendous terrorist attack in Manchester [and now, the attacks on London Bridge] and a British general election inevitably meant that this question would dominate political and media discourses. And so it has. Particular attention has, once again, been drawn to the role of western foreign policy, including that of the UK, as a driver of extremist violence.
Why charities should be allowed to campaign freely at election time
Everybody was caught off guard when Theresa May announced Britain would be heading to the polls on June 8. But charities were more surprised than most by the news – which had an immediate impact on their day-to-day campaigning operations.
ELECTION 2017: Voters with learning disabilities are being excluded from this election
There are more than 1m people with learning disabilities in the UK and the number is expected to increase. These are people who face exclusion from society more than ever – particularly when it comes to voting. Not enough is done to enable their participation in the most basic democratic right available to British citizens.
ELECTION 2017: Lib Dem manifesto – who is it for exactly?
The 2015 general election left the Liberal Democrats on a precipice. The party was reduced to just eight MPs, a much shrunken local government base, and had been dethroned from its traditional position as the third party of British politics.
ELECTION 2017:Fact Check - if 30% more people under 25 vote, could the Conservatives lose the election?
An article on The Independent is being widely shared on social media suggesting that a 30% increase in turnout among 18 to 24-year-olds would make the election of a majority Conservative government on June 8 rather unlikely. It followed a tweet by Alan Firth, a linguist at Newcastle University, commenting on an article by the vice president of the National Union of Students, Shelly Asquith. When contacted by The Conversation, Firth said that the calculations made in The Independent article reflected his own.